Last Week in Predictions: Oct 19, 2026
Sports and weather predictions dominated Predict Anything on Delphi last week, making up over two in five forecasts. What matches were people predicting?
Delphi gave odds for hundreds of predictions last week, pricing everything from El Clásico to Asian hornets to the Pope’s health updates.
A few categories were more prominent than others among predictors. Sports led with a quarter of all forecasts, followed by Weather at nearly a fifth. Politics followed in third place, despite upcoming elections in the US, Brazil and Israel making global headlines daily.
Finance and Economics predictions trailed behind, combining for about a fifth of all predictions. That contrasts with actual Delphi markets, where Crypto, Finance and Economics drove the majority of trade volume throughout the week.
Of those predictions that have since been settled, predictors were right 36% of the time, and Delphi was correct 86% of the time when a predictor took a position against it.
Sports: soccer strikes
Sports was the biggest category, and footie took around six in ten sports forecasts. Baseball trailed behind Soccer and Basketball, despite the post-season being in full swing with the World Series fast approaching.
- El Clásico. Real Madrid winning the next Clásico was predicted several times, and the odds barely moved, in the mid-20s every time.
- Lakers and Dodgers. The Lakers winning their next game sat close to a coin flip, drifting between the high 40s and mid 60s. The Dodgers and the World Series came in at around 1% or less as the Brewers worked their way toward a sweep.
- Long shots. Manchester City getting relegated (6%), Cristiano Ronaldo retiring from international football this year (6%) and Inter Miami winning the MLS Cup (3%) all priced as unlikely. Manchester United sacking their manager before December got a more respectable one in four.
Politics: a global map
Politics took just over one in eight forecasts, and it was the most international category. The US led with a third of political questions, followed by Israel and Brazil, then Spain, Argentina and the Vatican.
- US. Questions about Trump and the midterms priced in the single digits, as did Democrats winning both houses of Congress. Trump resigning this year came in at about 1%.
- Israel. A new Prime Minister by the end of the year got around 16%. Netanyahu being out after the next election was much less likely, at around 3%.
- Brazil. Several phrasings of the Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro runoff all came out in the low teens for Lula, so Delphi had Bolsonaro as the favourite.
- Spain. The wording mattered. A right-wing majority at the next election priced near 89%, but tied to a November 2026 vote it dropped to 27%.
- Vatican. Pope Leo stepping down, or a new pope before 2027, both sat at around 2%, even with news of his recent cancer diagnosis and surgery.
The long tail
The smaller categories were where the questions got most specific.
- Culture. Taylor Swift winning a Grammy next year was priced at around one in four. A streaming film winning Best Picture and a woman winning Best Director both came in low, with plenty of time for a shift in viewer sentiment before February.
- Fashion. A cluster of CFDA questions appeared, including Zane Li and Emily Dawn Long, priced in the single digits to mid-teens. A new Alexander McQueen creative director pairing got about 16%.
- Gaming. Someone was following the C&C Generals Zero Hour World Series match by match. Delphi had DMT as a modest favourite over Madara, and Marakar as a strong one over MeRRy!.
- Tech. P vs NP being solved in the next six months was priced at effectively zero.
- Oddities. More Asian hornets in Porto and Gaia than last year got about 40%. A Pokémon 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box dropping below $100 this year was a coin flip.
Forecasts worth a closer look
Five forecasts that tell a story on their own. Each has a slot for its share card.
1. The Spanish election, two ways. Same question, different deadline: near 89% for "the next election" but 27% when tied to November 2026. Timing is most of a forecast.
2. Streaming film prestige. Winning Best Picture is a long shot according to Delphi, but how likely is a film from a streamer to be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars?
3. Lula vs Bolsonaro. Every phrasing of the runoff put Lula in the low teens last week, and Delphi expects a Bolsonaro win more decisively now.
Predict anything
Think Delphi got one of these wrong? Take a position and trade against it. Got a question nobody has asked yet? Type it in at delphi.fyi and see what the odds say.
See you next week.